Laurel - 2/23

With the snow day comes some free time. So, why not take an in-depth look at tomorrows card to help kill a few hours.

Race 1 - F4+MDN16000 - 5.5F ( 34% wire to wire wins )

2 - 4 - 5

A typical poor Maryland maiden race. These races are skull busters and this one is no different. #2 Go for Ginnie comes out of a poor effort against a touch better, don’t be so harsh on her though, that was going a mile over a surface that was playing favorably to outside stalkers. This one was attempting to set the pace under pretty good pressure while somewhat rank. Has shown speed against MSW types in prior starts. #4 My Brooklynne Rose goes out for Gibbs/Capuano who have both been going pretty good lately. Has never been in for a tag and while she’ll be coming from off the pace, she just might out class these, odds won’t be fair however. #5 Smart ‘N Feisty goes out for 31% firster barn, Trombetta, with main man Pimental up. Bred to show speed and firsters in a field such as this are always welcomed. #1 Sheza Wonder will probably take some money of 4 second place finishes in last 5 starts at or around this level. She is a 4 year old making her 16th caree start though and these types usually find a way to lose, but obviously wouldn’t be a shock.

Some Laurel Park handicapping discussion …

This is copied and pasted from another one of my post, but we’ll pick it up here. Perhaps some useful information here, or maybe somethings for debate.

As far as Laurel goes, for the most part it is one of the fairest surfaces in the country in my opinion. Speed is at an advantage at some distances like most places in the country, but at others it is a disadvantage. Here are some stats I have for the effectiveness of front runners at certain distances.:

The new Penn National …

Getting caught up on some stories and what have you today and I started looking the results and entries for the recently improved Penn National.

Those sneaky good riders …

You know the guys. The are relegated to smaller tracks, the Laurels, Philly Parks and Delawares of the world. Some even hang out at Charlestown. While they may never reach national stardom, they can become a rider you can count on while betting these less covered, perhaps obscure tracks.

 

Laurel Park - 1-21 …

Looks like an OK card betting wise today. We’ll give it a whirl.

We’ll go in assuming the track is playing fair, but I’d watch the first few races very closely to see if a certain running style is best.

 Race 1 - 1 mile - 3Yo MDN 16000

#1 - #5 - #9 - #3

 Going to allow myself 4 selections in here because #3 Court Band is going ( unless I’m missing something ) to be a huge price. #1 Ferrous is the co-morning line favorite at 5-2. I don’t think you will get that price. He is my top choice dropping in for 16k from 25k and making his 3rd start of his form cycle. He had a brutal trip in his latest, going head to head through  23.2 and 46.3 opening fractions going a mile while hung out two wide. Speed is an asset the majority of the time going this distance as is the rail and his prior race would trounce these. Ferris goes to Napravnik so all seems well. #9 Lord Willing draws a tough post after racing from a tougher post in his last. He made a nice 5 wide move and ran on well for 2nd. Pino takes the reins again and he should make a run. #5 Bimini Bay comes out of the same race Lord Willing. He made the same type of move, just not as wide and ran 4th. Beaten favorite in his last 3 likes to burn money. #3 Court Band is going to go off too big a price for me not to mention, he may run last, but if he doesn’t he could help the exotics pay a nice number. Makes his 2nd start of the form cycle after running an even 5th in a quickly run race against a bit tougher. His first two career starts were non-efforts, but that latest showed me some signs of life.

 

Laurel thoughts 1-18 …

Race 1 - #2 - #7

Looks like atleast half the field would like to have the front end. I think #2 Aseeninvogue will win that battle with the others. Comes into the race with the best form on paper and should be able to outlast the others. I think #7 Cadillac ofthe Sky might be best on the front end, but he has rated to victory in the past and gets a nice attack post here.

Race 2 - #3 - #5 - #6

Looks like quite a few of these are going in the wrong direction or are already there. I like #3 Dr. Pamela to make the lead here and never look back. Lots of speed in her last and she couldn’t get to the front from the outside post. Back inside here and not much speed to contend with outside of #4 but I think #3 is quicker. #5 Ad Muster and #6 Three Shots all can be running late and don’t seem to be headed in  a bad direction.

Race 4 - #1 - #3 - #7

Not much to say here. Bad race. The only horse that really interest me is #3 Senorita Toni Mae. She was 121-1 in her latest and really ran a credible race being hung wide the whole way to only be beaten 4 lengths by the winner and less by the horses that may go favored here. Has a chance to blow up the tote board.

Race 5 - #9

Not sure how you look past #9 Edger in here. Looks like a standout.

Race 6 - #6

#6 Something Dixie goes out for the 2nd time in her career for Trombetta/Caraballo. Took money in debut and I expect improvement.

Race 8 - #6

#6 One Man To Beat has the speed to get himself a nice tracking trip in here. #5 Blew Me Away is he obvious threat.

 If the track is listed good today it may play to the off pace types. Not sure what the temp is but the rail could be good or bad depending upon the weather. I’d tread lightly regardless due to the quality of racing but I’d also watch the first couple closely.

Good Luck.  

Laurel Selections and Analysis - 1/17/08

Kind of a blah card as far as I’m concerned. No real exciting opinions but we’ll see what we can do …

 Race 1 - F4+5000Nw2/6m

#2 - #4 - #7

Top choice in here is #4 Cheer the Heroes who goes out for A. Ferris and Karamanos who have been quite potent together. Should get a nice stalking trip outside of what I feel will be a no hope pace setter. Has a nice cozy post and is in decent enough form. #2 Blondies Miracle should get a nice ground saving trip under C. Quinones, trainer lacks a win at the meeting but this one seems to be moving steady forward and the post is a cozy one. #7 Heck with Jones gets saddled with a tough post but has some decent runs routing. Not sure what Carmouche’s game plan will be from out here, I do get the feeling that this horse’s natural speed will have her to close early from this post leaving her hopelessy parked out wide with the short run into the first turn. I hope he can take her back further off the pace.

Race 2 - F3Yo 25000

#3 - #4 - #5

#4 My Dance Partner is a horse that interest me in here. Ran against the shape of her last race, a race that featured a very solid pace, held on well to run 3rd. Has proven herself at this level and has been a fringe contender against tougher. #3 Shanghai Lil goes out for the 2nd time for H. Smith after breaking her maiden in stylish fashion in her first career start. Her maiden breaker might be enough to handle this group, but with expected improvement this one figures tough to handle. #5 Princess Nyla is logical off the drop in class and quality connections. Bullet work noted.

Race 3 - F3yoMDN16000

#2 - #5 - #7

Perhaps the winter racing and dreary weather have me down, but this is another situation that irks me. The powers to be at Laurel love to card this kind of race in the middle of the early pick 3. They haven’t gotten onboard with NYRA and others who cut us a break by putting this type of race at the beginning of pick x’s so you can see the how the field gets bet. My guess would be they place this race here to help suck as much money in with this pick 3 as they can, hoping everyone guesses and takes shots driving the cost of the tickets up. That tactic probably works because I’ll probably have atleast one ticket that singles or goes two deep in the other two legs and will have the “all” button here. No excuse here either, this race could have been carded as the 2nd. Instead, we get two back to back maiden races in the early pick 3 with the 3yo race as the 2nd leg. I realize that only one horse is a first time start, but perhaps that horse gets bet to 3-5 and you could concede the race to him if this race were the first leg … guess not. Anyways …

#7 Midnight Swim goes out for solid connections and has some decent enough works for this crowd to merit attention. Wouldn’t be a suprise if this one is live. #2 Patch of Fire takes the biggest drop in racing, MSW to MDN Clm . Showed speed against those better foes in a race that seems to lack any pace. #5 Kelly’s Calling has ran the best races against more swift competition and merits support just based on what looks like the best form on paper.

 Race 4 - F4+MDN 25000 - 1M 1/16th

#1 - #5 - #6

Doesn’t get much easier here. I went with the 3 lightly raced horses, hoping one of them improves and beats the career maidens, #3, #4, #7 …

#1 Tatjana’s Salute makes her 3rd career start after improving a bit 2nd out. A decent post with a solid rider and continued improvement puts her in the mix. #5 Gray Halo has run 2nd 4 times, against simliar and what might have been a bit better. Seems to have work in company with a stablemate that followed up the work with a race/Beyer that would beat these so we’ll put our faith in that. #6 Golden Streak has met tough in 4 or 5 career starts and makes her 3rd off the break today. Solid connections should have this one ready to roll and perhaps shower her best yet.  E Rodriguez bails but we will keep the faith.

Race 5 - 4+14000 - 6F

#1 - #2/2x - #3

#3 Riggins is my top choice in here. Solid form, Salvaggio sendin’em out live and the extra distance should help. Only concern might be the lack of pace in here, but we’ll take our chances. #1 Too Salty For Me takes a slight drop in class for a barn that seems to be heating up. Probably will be a decent price. #2 Anxious fits nice in here for winning Lake barn that won a bunch of races late last week. Can’t really find a reason to knock this one.  #2X Lycurgus comes off a solid win against tougher. 2nd off the lay off, however in this case I’m not positive that is a plus after he ran a lifetime best first off the break, many of these types regress a touch. Top it off with the suspicious drop in class off of a win and you have reason to be cautious. My guess is Lycurgus will be the one to scratch.

Race 6 - F4+35000/5+35000Nw3L - 7F

#4 - #3 - #5

#4 Helen Says is my top pick in here, comes in off a blowout win over 20k claimers. The Beyer Fig she recieved is 71, I had it quite a bit higher. Karamanos replaces Fogelsonger and she should get a nice trip stalking what looks like it will be a controlled pace. #3 Citi Swinger makes her 3rd start of the form cycle and should enjoy the fast dirt track. Improved 2nd back and one more move forward puts her right in the mix. #5 Bell of Brass is another one that should enjoy the first dirt track, she comes off of a poor effort against the same group over a muddy surface. No panicky drop by barn and the go to rider is call upon. This one handled an similiar group two back.

 Race 7 - F3YoMSW - 5.5F

#1A - #3 - #8

Tough race with a lot of live looking firsters and improving youngsters. I’ll go to #1A Joyful who has been working with her entrymate above it would seem. Entrymate showed some talent first out, same rider called upon so this one looks like she might be a runner. #3 Another Hero goes out off a long series of works for the Trombetta barn who is 33% first start. No real fast works but just going to trust the connections as some of their other firsters have ran well without working bullets. #8 Prim Wildcat makes 2nd start off the lay off and third of career. High Beyer in tow and speed to boot. Was well respected in both career starts and Beckner comes into ride.

 Race 8 - 4+AlwN1x - 6F

#1 - #4 - #6

#1 Sincere Man goes first off the Wolfendale claim ( 25% ) and just about everything this barn sends out with Gibbs in the irons wins, poor lifetime record but it is tough to get around this one. #4 Phantastic Peace makes his 2nd start of the break, highest last race Beyer in two and his last looks solid at this level. #6 C. G’s Striker coms in off a perfect trip win against a bit lesser. He looked good doing it though and Rig/Panell are always live. His form looks sneaky good.

Race 9 - F4+7500Nw2L - 1M 1/16th

#3 - #4 - #9

#3 Debraella and #5 Just a Daisy are pretty obvious in here. This field is bad and these two have run decent races in the past few. The case for these two is only strengthened when you see they ran well from tough post. #9 Wade Lake adds blinkers and will probably be blasting out of there. He needs to with that post. Speed in these N2Lers is ver dangerous and if this one can clear a few of the quicker foes to the inside he may lead them on a futile chase. In any pick x’s I’d have to nclude the #1 since she is so lightly raced and gets the best post for this trip.

Good luck to all.