Laurel Park – 1-21 …

Looks like an OK card betting wise today. We’ll give it a whirl.

We’ll go in assuming the track is playing fair, but I’d watch the first few races very closely to see if a certain running style is best.

 Race 1 – 1 mile – 3Yo MDN 16000

#1 – #5 – #9 – #3

 Going to allow myself 4 selections in here because #3 Court Band is going ( unless I’m missing something ) to be a huge price. #1 Ferrous is the co-morning line favorite at 5-2. I don’t think you will get that price. He is my top choice dropping in for 16k from 25k and making his 3rd start of his form cycle. He had a brutal trip in his latest, going head to head through  23.2 and 46.3 opening fractions going a mile while hung out two wide. Speed is an asset the majority of the time going this distance as is the rail and his prior race would trounce these. Ferris goes to Napravnik so all seems well. #9 Lord Willing draws a tough post after racing from a tougher post in his last. He made a nice 5 wide move and ran on well for 2nd. Pino takes the reins again and he should make a run. #5 Bimini Bay comes out of the same race Lord Willing. He made the same type of move, just not as wide and ran 4th. Beaten favorite in his last 3 likes to burn money. #3 Court Band is going to go off too big a price for me not to mention, he may run last, but if he doesn’t he could help the exotics pay a nice number. Makes his 2nd start of the form cycle after running an even 5th in a quickly run race against a bit tougher. His first two career starts were non-efforts, but that latest showed me some signs of life.

 

 Race 2 – 7F – 3Yo 25000

 #1 – #3 – #7

Looks to me to be a wide open contentious affair. #1 Toy Soldier is the deserving 7-5 morning live favorite, those Beyers and big margins of victory just jump off the page. I’m always skeptical of those big Beyers earned at Charlestown ( and Penn National for that matter ) and these horses are no doubt tougher than what he has faced. He is also no doubt going to face more early pressure in here. #3 Adios Kisses ran a nice race against a runner that I felt was a standout in his latest. Lots of speed in here so I’m not sure his running style fits the race shape, especially with Toy Soldier drawn on the rail but I really didn’t care for many in here. #7 Shameless Risk looks 2nd best on paper to #1 but he hasn’t passed anyone in the stretch and is drawn furthest outside. The glimmer of hope is that oth of the horses he has chased him in his last two won in wire to wire fashion, so perhaps he can pass horses if they stop. I wouldn’t take to short a number to find out.

Race 3 – 1M 1/16th – 4+5000 Nw2 6m

#5 – #7 – #9

Another wide open affair. #7 Gold Reserve has been in the exacta 3 straight, comes off a win, goes out for solid connections and loves Laurel. Not sure what kind of pace we will have in here, but he is one of the more solid wagering options. #5 Mike’s Greenfields took money when the pools opened in his latest and ran an improved race for Bailes. Little or no pace in here it seems and he should be able to set a nice trip on or close to that slow pace. #9 Silent Assassin has been facing tougher more recently that most of these and has a touch of speed to help him flee that outside post. I could see this guy on the engine and if you forgive his latest over the mud he looks quite solid here. Form is poor but that was against tougher, dropping to this bottom level should help him get in the hunt.

#10 Calvin K and #1 Timber Emblem could upset the apple card at huge odds in here. Both have some things in their form that grabbed my attention and they won’t be winning or running behind/with my choices without my money. If #11 Strike Your Colors gets in he probably should be considered but I considered him scratched.

 Race 4 – 7F – F4+7500

#3 – #5 – #7

Another contentious affair in a skull buster of a pick 3 sequence. This pick 3 will be worth getting involved in with these fields. #3 Bankcard comes off a solid enough effort for a price just a touch above this. Not exactly a win machine and hasn’t found Laurel’s winner circle but I liked her effort two back against most of these. #5 Auspicious Girl is a reclaim by Linda Albert. I like that angle, comes out of a different race for this same price which is a plus as far as I’m concerned because this common group isn’t exactly exciting. Ran against tougher recently and Gibbs is called upon. Another that hasn’t won at Laurel and she loves to run 2nd but we’ll give her a shot. #7 Flying Corsyd goes out for A Regalbuto, who has started 2 horses in ’08 and both won. Faced what was probably lesser in her latest but has won at Laurel, can run from off the pace which is a plus at this distance and the trainer might be hot.

Race 5 – 7F – 4Yo5000 or 5+5000Nw3L

#4 – #10 – #11

It must be punish the horseplayer day at Laurel cause things don’t look too much easier here. A speed laden field of bottom level claimers going 7 furlongs. This are tough when a horse from the 14 hole is looking good. #4 Hesachaser ran a nice race last time, an effort that was validated when the winner came back to run 2nd on Saturday. I’m hoping he doesn’t need to the lead because the lead looks to belong to chronic quiter/money burner Lake trainee Lord Barrister. Hopefully Hesachaser can set right off that rival and continue to motor on. #10 Diffraction looks like the one to beat in here and is my top choice. Has some speed, doesn’t need the lead, is in solid form, comes off a win, gets a jock that the barn has used with success, barn going well, has handled the distance, … he looks good. #11 Electric Mountain makes his 3rd start of his form cycle and has shown that he can atleast run on without the lead. Would rather have Panell riding for Rigattieri but Bocachica has been keeping the faith with this guy.

Race 6 – 3Yo AlwN1x – 7F

#1 – #2 – #3

#1 Coheed comes off a blow out win over 35k maidens. Set a fast pace, faster than older allowance horses and finished in a better time than that class in his first start for Leatherbury and the added blinkers. Should be able to fend off #4 and #7 and try to hang on. #2 Mr. Prime Time was ultra impressive in his debut rallying from off the pace going 5.5F. Effort might not be as good as looked since the track favored his running style that day, but with the speed in todays race he should get a nice setup. #3 Gattopardo has been facing these types, which none of the others can say. He has not only been facing them, but has been competitive and his last indicated he might be developing a rating gear, might get the garden trip just behind the speeds.

Race 7 – 5.5F – 3Yo MSW

Do things a bit different. It is tough picking these races without seeing the board to see which horses take money. So we’ll go horse by horse, couple interesting pedigrees in here:

#2 My Bullet: 2nd start for P Alexander. A son of Red Bullet whose young firsters are winning at an awesome clip. Was bet down to 12-1 in a 10 horse field at Delaware in his debut. No pedigree power to speak of here on the dam side, but based on the action this guy took at Delaware I’d bet this one can run. People don’t blindly bet Rosemary Homeister and Pete Alexander.

#3 Montano: Full brother to G1 placed, G2 winner Chapel Royal who won his first 3 starts by a combined 20 1/4 lengths and went favored in the G1 Hopeful at Saratoga. The fact that this one only cost 70k at auction with that pedigree power tells me he may not be as good conformationally as he big bro but he probably deserves another chance or two. Especially since he took some money in his debut against a 13 horse field in which a T Pletcher shipper was bet to odds on. Montbrook never struck me as a sire of precocious runners either, perhaps I missed the bus or maybe this guy and his bro are exceptions.

#1 Hotrail: He’ll be scratched, he broke his maiden Saturday at the Big A.

#4 Fire Chief Casey: Sold for 10x the sire fee, always a good sign. No pedigree power on dam side. Hook and Ladder winning with his firsters at a great clip. Not a great pattern of works. If you look at race 6 Mr. Prime Time won his debut for same trainer with 3 consistent works prior to his debut, so I’m not sure what to make of this guy. They didn’t work in company either, but lets call this one a contender with a rider the barn goes to in the saddle, the sires record with young firsters and the purchase price noted.

1A Sixfortysix: Purchased for less than stud fee, not a great sign. Sire not great with youngsters. Dam was stakes placed and has thrown a G2 placed 215k winner. Breeder breeds to race and half brother was bred and raced by breeder, another not so great sign. If Rose ends up here as oppose to riding in Philly for Dutrow, I’d consider that a plus. Probably not the best option in here, but if Rose is aboard, I’d have to consider

#5 Bearrock N Roll: No pedigree power. Debut was promising from a very tough post. Blinkers go on and 2nd start is one of my favorite angles. Another contender with barns go to rider up, better post, and 2nd start improvement pending.

#6 Tricky Start: Best horse on paper. Pino keeps the faith. No pedigree on the dam side, sire gets precosious runners. Ran against track bias on Dec. 15th. 2nd place finisher from his latest won his next with a Beyer in the 80’s ( See race #6 – In My Footsteps ). Winner of that race goes in race 6, Mr. Prime Time. The overbet captain obvious horse in here.

#7 Naturel Resources: Already lost for a tag. 3 seconds. Sire not known for win early types. Bunch of winning and decent earning siblings, though nothing great. Last was good from tough post, winner didn’t come back to run great though. Probably too many other good options to take this one but not without a chance.

#8 Milly’s Mojave: 4 of last 5 works were bullets. Another with some winners in the pedigree, including a stakes winner of 217k. Sire not a great win early dad. Barn doesn’t use rider much, usually goes to Rose but he ends up on the 1A. Rose is also listed to ride at Philly Park today on a decent 3 year old for T Dutrow, so if there is a rider change on the 1A I’d consider that a plus for this guy, my thinking being they probably tried to get Rose and his agent said he was out of town. Contender, post is a knock.

#9 Point Taker: Not much pedigree. Sire’s runners are predicted to want more ground and maturity. Works just okay. Barn has been going to G. Garcia with live ones but L. Garcia rode this barns star 3 year old filly Winning Point to a graed stake win and a few placings last year so this one might be real live. Post is a knock but can’t be eliminated confidently.

These races are always fun, for me atleast. I like to break the pedigrees down. Race is probably best bet after watching the board and looking for value. My choices sitting at my desk with no changes or a board to watch would be #2, #4, #6.

Race 8 – 4+AlwN2xOC25000 – 7F

#2 – #8 – #6

#6 Mucho Margaritas is my top choice in here and may end up being the play of the day. Lightly raced with room to improve, last was a decent effort against a horse that is sharp right now and has already come back to win. Should get a nice stalking trip. #2 Chasin’ Tiger  is in sharp form and comes off a win. I like a few of the dudes he has been facing and he should get a nice trip off the speeds. #4 Fortunate Code is in good form and has chased a couple good ones including next out winner Janes Kid. Dunkelberger into ride.

Race 9 – 4+MDN 8000 – 7F

#3 – #12 – #13 – #14

4 choices in here. Tough maiden race with the decent horses in terrible post. #3 is my top choice in here.

Good luck …

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One Response to “Laurel Park – 1-21 …”

  1. Phil J. Says:

    Track didn’t seem to favor any particular path today, though speed seemed to be an asset.

    Race 1 –

    My four choice ran 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 with top choice Ferrous winning and our longshot Court Band running 4th. No super in here though so didn’t help us any.

    Race 2 –

    Toy Soldier scratched and our other two choices ran poorly. Shameless Risk blew the turn and ran 3rd. Adios kisses checked in 4th

    Race 3 –

    Pretty much a whiff. Gold Reserve ran 2nd, the #9 might have been 3rd

    Race 4 –

    #7 scratched. Our choices Bankcard and Auspicious Girl ran 1 and 2.

    Race 5 –

    The juice man Lake’s charge didn’t quit today, ran 6F in 110 and change and kept going. My 3 choices ran 2nd, 3rd and 4th behind. Thanks. I had bet this horse in his last effort to when he lost to a bunch of these here.

    Race 6 –

    Had the tri here, also got our play of the day home Gattopardo at 2-1.

    Race 7 –

    Well it was an interesting wide open race. Even after seeing the board I liked 2 4 6. 6 won and the 2 and 4 ran 3rd and 4th at 10-1 and 11-1 respectively. #7 ran 2nd to spoil my exacta and tri.

    Race 8 –

    Had the numbers messed up here. #8 Chasin Tiger won, #4 Fortunate Code ran 3rd, Mucho Margaritas was a scratch.

    Race 9 –

    Pino out rode’em and got the #14 home. My top choice got a questionable ride at 6-1. Still haven’t decided why these guys would rather duel between horses than taking back and getting a nice ground saving trip. Pino tucked in behind the speed and ran past’em late.

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