Play of the day …

Races played = 16

Wins = 10 – 63%

ITM Finishes = 15 – 94%

Previous play investment = $50

Previous play return = $170

Starting Bankroll = $1000

Bankroll as of previous play = $1740

New Bankroll = $1910

So the bankroll continues a steady march forward after Fridays $8.xx winner. We have a $910 dollar profit with 16 plays over the course of a month or so. We are striking at 63% on the win end and have had 15 of the 16 picks run in the money. That isn’t bad, infact it is darn good. 

 We have bet some favorites as well as some horses that went off at below fair value odds, but that is ok. An even money or 4-5 winner is better than a 5-1 loser and sometimes you just have to take what is offered. Obviously these selections aren’t going to win you a handicapping contest in which longshots are your only hope, but they are solid, sound selections at close to if not fair odds.

Enough of that. Today we head to the Big A to wager on the 2nd race, a maiden special weight for 3 year old fillies.

Field of 7, including an entry which makes 6 betting interest are going postward.

#2 Our Dreamette probably fits at this level on her best day. She picks up Dominguez and projects a decent trip stalking inside. Problem is, she has made the most starts in the field, and while some would say that her experience gives her an edge, I have a few problems with that. She hasn’t shown much improvement since coming back from the break and feel one of the more lightly raced runners will jump up and beat her. Top it off with the fact she is coming off an absolute dud and I have to pass. However, she is worth consideration if she gets out of hand on the board.

#3 Sultry Katrina goes out second off the lay off for Rice and Lopez after a decent effort at this same level. Is a threat to make the lead and not stop, however I point to the fact that she blew a clear lead going 5.5F in her last after getting an opening 1/4 in 23.0 and the 1/2 in 46.4. Today she has to navigate another .5F and if one of the firsters and 2nd time starters can run I doubt she gets away with those splits.

#4 Positive Prospect is a firster for Contessa and Winning Move. She is by a Florida stallion named Sasha’s Prospect, a son of Mr. Prospector. I couldn’t find too much out about the sire, but he did win his debut as a two year old. This filly was also his highest priced foal that sold at a sale. She sold for 20 times the stud fee, which is always a real good sign. Works aren’t awe inspiring and Contessa’s not great first out, but a note of the tote board is probably in order.

#5 Lunar Beach adds blinkers for James Toner and C. Cedeno. Toner has a nice ROI with horses comes back from this break as well as blinker stats. Has run competitive Beyers and might get a nice trip stalking outside.

#6 Shafter is a firster by horse of the year Mineshaft. James Jerkens is the trainer and N. Arroyo rides. I expect this one to want more distance to be most effective and it seems looking at Mineshafts runners to date most have improved with added distance and experience.

All that being said, our play of the day is the Darley Stable entry trained by K. McLaughlin.

#1 Kindasorta is an Ohio bred Yankee Gentleman filly that brought 510k at auction ( 68 times the stud fee ). I don’t think Darley is spending 510k to reap the rewards of any Ohio bred bonuses at Thistle or River, so based on purchase price, state bred, and tote action in her debut ( bet down to 5-1 in a 10 horse field before the big stables went south ) I’m going to say she can run. Her first effort wasn’t too bad, she showed speed and was 5 wide entering the turn before Hill took her back a few lengths, she made a small run and the kind of went evenly. Not a terrible effort, she has been training forwardly and today draws the rail ( a highway last few days )and gets Garcia.

#1A Fada Run also makes her 2nd start after an ok debut. Stumbled at the start and ran a green 4th.

The last bullet we have in the chamber is McLaughlin 30% success rate 2nd time out and a nice $4 + ROI.

Play of the day:

 $50 to win on the #1/1A entry at Aqueduct race #2.

Stipulation: If either one scratches, no bet. I want both horses for my even money or 3/2.

Things are tough when this is our play of the day, I checked out Philly and Gulfstream and this was about it as far as interesting plays went without seeing scratches/odds. Nothing on Saturday though and most likely nothing on Mon/Tues so we’ll fire away.

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One Response to “Play of the day …”

  1. Phil J. Says:

    Races played = 17

    Wins = 11 – 65%

    ITM Finishes = 16 – 94%

    Previous play investment = $50

    Previous play return = $70

    Starting Bankroll = $1000

    Bankroll as of previous play = $1910

    New Bankroll = $1980

    Turns out, Kindasorta could kind of sort of run.

    1 Kindasorta Garcia Alan 120 4.80 2.50 2.70

    Garcia made the lead on the rail and never looked back, opened up 8 lengths at one point before coasting home at a little better than even money.

    Maybe something tomorrow?

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