Kentucky Derby futures …

So they closed yesterday afternoon with the field favored, as usual, at 3-1.

It never fails that the horse that wins the preps the weekend the bet closes gets grossly overbet and that is the case here also, as Pyro was the lowest of the individual better interest at an absurd 5-1.

If you took 5-1 on a horse in early Feb. to win the Kentucky Derby you need to check your sanity. 90% I won’t take anything under 20-1 this far out ( I broke that last year when I bet Rags to Riches at 4-1 in pool 1 but her lost Las Virgenes win was one of the top 3 performances I’ve ever seen, if not the best ever. If she made it to the Oaks gate healthy 4-1 was going to be a gift, and it was. ). While I was highly impressed with Pyro, I don’t believe he stands out yet, especially that far. The time was slow and the field might have been suspect. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him at better than 5-1 if he makes it into the gate.

So who did I play?

I played Cowboy Cal at 26-1. I know his efforts have been on turf and his one on dirt was terrible but anyone remember Barbaro winning the same races in the same easy fashion? I’m not even sure if they are going to try dirt with him in his next start but 26-1 is value in my opinion.

I also played Giant Moon at 51-1. An undefeated New York bred his seems to do just what he has too, maybe he’ll run fast enough but at 51-1 I’ll find out.

Blackberry Road at 47-1 was a play, late runner who seemed to have run at the Fair Grounds the other day but traffic was heavy infront of him.

Z Fortune at 37-1 was also a play. Runner with tactical speed and room to improve.

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