Laurel – 2/23

With the snow day comes some free time. So, why not take an in-depth look at tomorrows card to help kill a few hours.

Race 1 – F4+MDN16000 – 5.5F ( 34% wire to wire wins )

2 – 4 – 5

A typical poor Maryland maiden race. These races are skull busters and this one is no different. #2 Go for Ginnie comes out of a poor effort against a touch better, don’t be so harsh on her though, that was going a mile over a surface that was playing favorably to outside stalkers. This one was attempting to set the pace under pretty good pressure while somewhat rank. Has shown speed against MSW types in prior starts. #4 My Brooklynne Rose goes out for Gibbs/Capuano who have both been going pretty good lately. Has never been in for a tag and while she’ll be coming from off the pace, she just might out class these, odds won’t be fair however. #5 Smart ‘N Feisty goes out for 31% firster barn, Trombetta, with main man Pimental up. Bred to show speed and firsters in a field such as this are always welcomed. #1 Sheza Wonder will probably take some money of 4 second place finishes in last 5 starts at or around this level. She is a 4 year old making her 16th caree start though and these types usually find a way to lose, but obviously wouldn’t be a shock.

Race 2 – 4+18000 – 6F ( 31% wire to wire wins )

1/1A – 4 – 5

A nice betting race if you can beat Scott Lake, which is often times impossible and it looks as though that might be the case here. He sends out the #1 entry of Anxious and Lycurgus, though with Castellano named on both one will probably scratch. Either one deserves to be the favorite and are the most likely winners. #4 Fortunate Code drops back in for this tag after facing a bit tougher. Rose named for Dildovico, which is a signal he means business. Might be too far back trying to rally into this. #5 Dale’s Prospect plunges in price for Gibbs/Capuano, and any resemblance of his old-self lays over these class wise.

 Race 3 – 4+MDN8000 – 7F ( 16%  wire to wire wins )

2 – 4 – 5

Nice thing about these fields is you can eliminate most of them right off the bat. #2 and #4 Patton Won and Noble Carter come out of the same race and their running style should be flattered here. Both are in good form, have some tactical speed and should be coming late. Patton Won has Caraballo up and I’d like to think that he should be able to out ride the rest of this crew. #5 Foxs Son of Grace makes only his 4th career start and has been given some time off plus shows a few sharp works. I’m sure that there are quicker ways to go broke than betting Art Madrid, I just haven’t come across them yet. Regardless, that is who we get.

Race 4 – 3Y025000 – 6F ( 31% wire to wire wins )

3 – 7 – 8

Tough race. I’m not a big fan of playing these 3 year old races. They are all lightly raced and improving, it is tough to get a handle on what might happen. That being said, I like #3 Gold is Mine. Alleci and Rodriguez team up and if you toss her Big A inner track efforts, she looks solid. Has been facing the best company of those in here and has speed. #8 Dynamic Dan goes out first off the claim for Rigattieri/Panell who connect 25% together. Rig is 34% off the claim and 23% when adding blinkers. Must avoid wide journey. #7 Friendslikethese goes out for Dutrow/Rose and will probably be overbet but can’t be eliminated. I believe that the 3 year olds in New York this time of the year are far superior than those on this circuit ( see #3 NY form v. MD form ), so in my opinion this horse outclasses the rest of the Maryland/West Virginia horses.

 A pick 3 starts on race 2, so lets give it a whirl.

$3 ticket: 1 w 2/4 w 3/7/8 = $18

$2 ticket: 1 w 2 w 3/7/8 = $6

$1 ticket: 1/4/5/6 w 2/4/5  w 2/3/5/7/8 = $48

Total of $72 dollars. Which seems like a lot to wrap up in a pick 3, and it is, however if I’m dead on, I could have it for $5.  The $1 ticket allows me to be a bit wrong, but still win with the possibility of a nice payout if the well bet horses get beat. Not sure this way of pick 3 playing is for everyone, it probably isn’t the most efficient, but it pays off enough that I haven’t abandoned it yet. Sometimes if you get two 3rd or 4th choices in the sequence the payout is overlayed and well worth playing it this way. I have also cashed tickets and lost money when the 2nd choice wins all 3 races and he wasn’t one of my “solid opinions”. Guess I’ll either look pretty bright or not so much, we’ll find out?

Race 5 – 3YoMDN10000 – 5.5F

1/1A – 2 – 8

Terrible field. Not going to go into detail, the firster could win, the 2nd time starters have a good chance, but the 3 above look best.

Race 6 – F4+10000 or 5+10000Nw3L – 7F

4 – 8 – 9

Tough to go against the trainers in here. #4 Unbiased is in solid form for Capuano, beat a classy rival for this level in her last and will be tough to deny here. #8 Young and Fabulous goes out for Lake, comes off a win at the level and has speed to flee the post and get a nice trip off the speed. #9 Vicar’s Vixen is going to need a trip from out here, but Feliciano’s 35% off the claim and he can work some wonders. Might overcome post. This condition really favors the 4 year olds with multiple wins and #4 and #8 both fit the bill.

Race 7 – F4+10000 or 5+10000Nw3L – 1 1/16th ( 27% wire to wire wins )

4 – 6 – 8

I still don’t know how, but #5 Albert’s Protege held on to win her last, beating a bunch of these at 48-1. She looked like the lone speed and I probably should have had her given the success of speed at the distance, but look at that form. That being said, she is the lone speed again and probably is not without a chance, but this field is a bit tougher. #4 Teeoffattwo, hey another Lake selection. Form is inconsistent but you can’t leave him out and her last was a nice looking run. #6 Crazy Woman adds blinkers for Ferris and is in pretty sharp form, should have gone by Albert in that meeting but didn’t. #8 Bell of Brass plunges for Panel/Rigattieri from 20k to 10k. Needs to work out a trip from post 8 with the short run to first turn but she may outclass these. Don’t be completely shocked if Panell comes out of the gate riding like a mad-man for the front end from here.

Race 8 – 3YoAlwN1x – 1 1/16th

1 – 2  – 7

#1 Surveyor comes out of a 2nd at the same level against a sharp rival. Draws well and might improve 2nd off the break. #2 Midnite Communion is a horse who I have been waiting to bet back since Dec. 29 when he dueled along a dead rail agains the bias of the surface. On Feb. 2nd, I bet him back, problem is, he dueled along another dead rail, against the bias. Now today, he shows up as a maiden in an N1x and will probably be dueling along the perhaps deep rail, against the bias. Doesn’t it always work that way? Anyways, if he can get away from #4 Knight in Armour he has a big chance so long as the track is playing fair. #4 Knight in Armour, has also come off to rough trips, blinkers come off today and he has shown he can rate, hopefully that is what Castillo decided to do, because I believe that is his best chance and it helps the chance of #2 Midnight Communion. #7 In my Footsteps is another trip bet back for me, when he dueled against the bias of a “good” race track. With Rose, I’d bet he takes back today. Capuano trains the #2 and #7, I can’t imagine his instructions to both will be “get the lead” or “send”. One of them is going to run from off the pace.

Race #9 – 3YoMSW – 5.5F

2 – 3 – 5

Three first time starters. #3 Buen Shot and #5 Patuxent Punch both go out for 31% firster trainer Trombetta. Pimental ends up on the #3, so he might be the better of the two but the rest of the firsters and those who have started aren’t real good, so we’ll use both. #2 Robey’s Choice is a firsters by Not for Love, who is a solid first time out sire. The rest of the firsters don’t have great pedigrees or good debut trainers.

Race 10 – Maryland Racing Media Handicap F4+ – 1 1/8th

1 – 5 – 6

#1 Coya goes 2nd off lay off for G. Capuano, I imagine they are sending her here and he is 35% from sprint to route. Form is poor, but she might not stop.  Add more points if track is playing fair. #6 Peerless comes in for Pletcher after chasing stablemate through slow fractions, had no chance to run that one down after 6F in 1.17.0. #6 Take a Check always puts in some kid of run and shouldn’t be too far out of it.

 Watch the first few races and see how they shape up. I believe the track will play fair to off the pace and outside. It will pay to watch the first few.

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3 Responses to “Laurel – 2/23”

  1. Phil J. Says:

    Changes for 2-23 –

    Race 1 – None
    Race 2 – C. Marquez on the #1 Lycurgus
    Race 3 – #4 Noble Carter Scratched
    Race 4 – #6 I Can’t Lie scratched
    Race 5 – None
    Race 6 – None
    Race 7 – Scratched #1 and #2
    Race 8 – #2 Blinks Off
    Race 9 – O. Castillo #2
    Race 10 – #5 Peerless Scratched

    So, with both entries for Lake running in the 2nd, the #4 scratched in race 3, I’m not going to play the pick 3 that way.

    I’d play a $1 ticket:

    1 w 2/5 w 2/3/5/7/8

    $2 ticket:

    1 w 2 w 3/7/8

    For a total of $16 dollars.

  2. Phil J. Says:

    Little recap. Track played fairly. Was listed as good and neither the rail nor speed was at a disadvantage.

    Race 1 – Gibbs got #4 My Brooklynne Rose, the Capuano runner, on the engine and never looked back at 3-5. Sheza A Wonder continued to burn money and ran 2nd again while Go For Ginnie rounded out the tri.

    1st 4 MY BROOKLYNNE ROSE $3.20 $2.20 $2.10

    Race 2 – Gibbs and Capuano again with #5 Dale’s Prospect, this time at 4-1. Lakers 1/1A runs 2/3 at 3-5, which started a pretty poor day for him. #4 Fortunate Code rounded out the tri for us.

    1st 5 DALE’S PROSPECT $10.40 $3.60 $3.00
    2nd 1 (Coupled/Field Runner) $2.10 $2.10
    3rd 1 (Coupled/Field Runner) $2.10 $2.10
    4th 4 FORTUNATE CODE

    $2 EX (5/1) paid $19.80
    $2 TRI (5/1/4) paid $48.00
    $2 DD (4/5) paid $19.20

    Race 3 – Art Madrid pulls of the shocker with #5 Foxs Son of Grace at 2-1. #2 Patton Won and Carraballo up for 2nd.

    1st 5 FOXS SON OF GRACE $6.80 $3.00 $2.10
    2nd 2 PATTON WON $2.10 $2.10

    $2 EX (5/2) paid $12.40

    Race 4 – #3 Gold Mine ultra impressive drawing off at 7-5. Rounded out a nice pick 3 if you used my picks, which I didn’t. I choose to get cute instead and try to slim the ticket with the Laker entry.

    1st 3 GOLD IS MINE $4.80 $3.40 $2.80

    $2 P03 (5/5/3) match 3 paid $156.20

    Race 5 – The Rigs #1/1A entry gets it done at 3-5. The #8 Allweneedismusic rounds out the exacta.

    1st 1 (Coupled/Field Runner) $3.60 $2.20 $2.10
    2nd 8 ALLWENEEDISMUSIC $3.60 $3.40

    $2 EX (1/8) paid $13.20

    Race 6 – Feliciano’s wins 35% off the claim for a reason and that gravy train kept rolling here at 5-2 with #9 Vicar’s Vixen. #4 Unbiased rounded out the exacta. Another pick 3, not so nice though.

    1st 9 VICAR’S VIXEN $7.00 $3.40 $3.60
    2nd 4 UNBIASED $3.20 $2.80

    $2 EX (9/4) paid $21.20
    $2 P03 (6/1/9) match 3 paid $52.40

    Race 7 – Blinkers did the trick for #6 Crazy Woman at just under 5-1. #4 Teeofattwo rounded out the exacta. #5 Albert’s Protoge gave up the ghost today, but what you almost had to use her in the tris didn’t you?

    1st 6 CRAZY WOMAN $11.80 $3.80 $2.60
    2nd 4 TEEOFFATTWO $3.20 $3.00
    3rd 5 ALBERT’S PROTEGE $5.40
    4th 8 BELL OF BRASS

    $2 EX (6/4) paid $39.20
    $2 TRI (6/4/5) paid $200.60
    $2 SPR (6/4/5/8) paid $615.80

    Race 8 – #1 Surveyor made the front and drew off at 4-5 under Sheldon Russell.

    1st 1 SURVEYOR $3.80 $2.80 $2.20

    So we have selected all 8 winners. Not much in the way of prices, some decent exactas, but that early pick 3 wasn’t bad. Unfortunately the current state of MD racing leaves us happy to have a couple $10.00 winners and some decent pick 3’s.

  3. Phil J. Says:

    We ended up sweeping the card with our 3 selection in each race. Nothing really to make light of.

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